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Yesterday’s price move was courtesy of a Tweet from Donald Trump. Apparently there will be no agreement on new stimulus package until after the election. Stocks didn’t like this, and as is the way with recent macro themed announcements, neither did Bitcoin.

Don’t be alarmed, Bitcoin retraced immediately to its favorite level, $10,619, and has spent much of today tucked in the middle of the recent trading range. A range which, with the absence of external shocks, is becoming tighter and tighter as the days pass by.

We know from experience that when volatility is suppressed, prices eventually break out. The previous bout of low volatility ended on July 26th, as Bitcoin broke up through $9,750 and marched up to this year’s high at $12,486 on August 17th.

In another 20 days, we will be just 7 days away from the US elections. Trump’s thumbs will no doubt add some volatility between now and then, so best be alert and follow him on Twitter!

While we wait for Bitcoin to break out from its recent trading channel, it’s worth taking a glance at the market cap to thermocap ratio.

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As the above chart clearly shows, previous tops in Bitcoin have been accompanied by spikes in this data point. The market cap to thermocap ratio is obtained by dividing the market cap (Bitcoins x price) and the thermocap, which is the total value earned by miners from block rewards and transaction fees. From this vantage point, it would appear that Bitcoin at $10,619 is in no danger of being marked as a top.

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